Monday, July 2

ByKevin Sheekey

The world did not come back together over the weekend:

An anti-immigrant minority in Germany declared the deal they insisted Angela Merkel negotiate with the EU isn’t good enough. Without a compromise they risk a historic breakup of a party bloc that’s governed Germany for most of the time since World War II.

Riding a wave of populist anger fueled by rampant corruption and violence, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected president of Mexico on Sunday, in a landslide victory that upended the nation’s political establishment and handed him a sweeping mandate to reshape the country with a mix of economic nationalism from the left.

And President Trump’s trade war is coming into view, better buckle up. Auto manufacturers saw duties on imports into China almost halved to 15 percent on Sunday. But the reprieve for producers – if they are built in the U.S. – is set to end in five days, when a retaliatory 25 percent levy makes them more expensive.


Among the Most Read on the Bloomberg Terminal (Last 24 Hours):
Tesla Finally Hits Model 3 Target, Turns Focus to Sustainability
(Bloomberg)
U.S. Backs Off Trump Tweet on Saudis Helping Lower Oil Prices (Bloomberg)



Financial Regulation Today: German Banks Plotting a Counter-Attack Against MiFID II (Bloomberg)



The Week Ahead.

Monday:
-Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte will be a guest of President Donald Trump at the White House.
-Wimbledon begins in London. Eight-time champion Roger Federer is the men’s top seed, with French Open winner Simona Halep highest among the women. Through July 15.

Tuesday:
-New York Stock Exchange closes early (13:00 EDT) ahead of the July 4th holiday. SIFMA has recommended an early close (14:00 EDT) for the fixed-income market.
-European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker address the European Parliament. In Strasbourg, France.

Wednesday:
-The U.S. celebrates Independence Day. Stock and bond markets are closed, along with government offices.
-Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki addresses the European Parliament on the future of Europe. In Strasbourg, France.

Thursday:
-U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes of its June 12-13 meeting, when FOMC policy makers raised the benchmark rate a quarter point for the second time this year, and lifted their median forecast to four total increases in 2018.
-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks at an event in Newcastle.

Friday:
-U.S. is scheduled to impose tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. Beijing has said it will slap tariffs on an equal value on U.S. exports including agricultural and auto exports.
-U.S. employers probably added almost 200,000 jobs in June while the jobless rate held at 3.8 percent, economists project, matching the second-lowest rate since 1969. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase 0.3 percent.
-Former U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at the Climate Change Leadership conference. In Oporto, Portugal.
-Norway’s prime minister Erna Solberg and sovereign wealth fund head Yngve Slyngstad meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and attend a conference on climate risk. In Paris.

Saturday:
-Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad visits China. He hopes to attract more Chinese manufacturers to Malaysia and renegotiate a high-speed railway link to Singapore, which could involve Chinese companies.
-The Tour de France begins. Ends July 29 in Paris. Click ​here for the route.

From NI WEEKAHEAD on the Bloomberg terminal.


Best of late night.

From Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO:

“For the Republicans, the Supreme Court is all about abortion, to which they remain staunchly opposed…until the moment their mistress gets pregnant.”

“Barack Obama recently told Democrats ‘don’t mope.’ That’s how far we have fallen. We have gone from hope to don’t mope.”

“The President announced that he was going to meet with Putin… Folks are saying he shouldn’t sit down with a criminal dictator, but Putin is going to do it anyway.”