A Year After Inauguration, Trump Dominates the Global Conversation

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Today marks one year since President Trump began his second term. In that time, he has come to dominate the political, media, and market conversation in a way I have not seen in my lifetime. Whether admired or opposed, his presence shapes the flow of events at home and abroad, forcing allies, adversaries, and investors alike to recalibrate in real time.

One Year In: Trump’s Tumultuous Year Pushing the Limits of Presidential Power (Bloomberg Businessweek)

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If you had to name a single thing Donald Trump has said that captures his tumultuous first year back in the White House, it might be this: “I have the right to do anything I want to do. I’m the president of the United States.”

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It’s a view of the presidency that he’s repeatedly brandished since returning to office, to justify his moves to seize authority from Congress, federal agencies and the courts.

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Trump discovered long ago that in politics, as in business, what’s true is often less important than what you can get away with. With help from submissive Republicans in Congress and a compliant conservative majority on the Supreme Court, he’s been able to get away with much of what he set out to do.

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Not everything, though. While many individuals, companies and institutions have caved to Trump’s demands, there are growing signs he may have overestimated his popularity and power of coercion. An outright backlash could disrupt his agenda and puncture the aura of invincibility he’s cultivated.

Reality Check: Americans Bear Almost All the Cost of Trump Tariffs, Study Shows (Bloomberg)
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President Donald Trump’s duties on imported goods are paid almost entirely by American importers, their domestic customers and ultimately US consumers, a study from a German think tank concluded.
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The study found that only about 4% of the tariff burden is shouldered by foreign firms, with a “near-complete” pass-through of 96% to US buyers who pay the levies and then must either absorb them or raise selling prices. Manufacturers and retailers are next in line in deciding whether they’ll pass along their higher costs or deal with tighter margins.
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“This claim has been central to the policy’s justification: Tariffs are framed as a tool to extract concessions from trading partners while generating revenue for the US government — at no cost to American households,” the Kiel researchers wrote. “Our research shows the opposite: American importers and consumers bear nearly all the cost.”

Global Tariff War

Trump Hits 8 NATO Allies With Tariffs as He Pursues Greenland (Bloomberg)
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President Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from European countries rallying to Denmark’s side in his pursuit of Greenland, a dramatic escalation in the standoff that sparked strong pushback from some of the US’s closest allies.

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Trump threatened in a social media post to impose the tariff Feb. 1 and raise the levy to 25% in June unless and until “a Deal is reached for the Complete and Total purchase of Greenland”:

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The tariffs will apply to Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Finland, he said.

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The explosive move targets several members of the NATO alliance, which includes Denmark. Those countries now face the prospect of punitive tariffs from an ally seeking to pry loose territory within the bloc.
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“Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral,” EU chiefs Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa said in a joint statement. “Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty.”

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French President Emmanuel Macron branded Trump’s threats “unacceptable.” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said his country wouldn’t be “blackmailed” and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the use of tariffs on NATO allies “completely wrong,” saying he’ll take up the matter with the US.

Deal on Pause: EU Set to Halt US Trade Deal Over Trump’s New Tariff Threat (Bloomberg)

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EU Offensive: EU Eyes Tariffs on €93 Billion of US Goods Over Threat (Bloomberg)

The European Union is in talks to potentially impose tariffs on €93 billion ($108 billion) of US goods if President Trump follows through on his threat to hit European countries with a 10% levy on Feb. 1.
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The EU is also weighing additional countermeasures beyond the tariffs but will first try to find a diplomatic solution, according to people familiar with the discussions. Representatives from the EU’s 27 countries met Sunday to begin preparing options.
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EU leaders will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels later this week to explore possible retaliatory measures. European Council President Antonio Costa said in a social media post Sunday that the bloc’s nations were united in support of Denmark and Greenland and were ready “to defend ourselves against any form of coercion.”

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He Wants More Than a 'FIFA Peace Prize': Trump Links Greenland Threats to Nobel Peace Prize Snub (Bloomberg)

But still Trump's threats continue. You really have to read this extraordinary letter that Trump apparently sent to the prime minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, and copied to other European ambassadors, Politico Playbook reported. In the letter, obtained by PBS NewsHour’s Nick Schifrin, Trump suggests his aggression toward Greenland is in part a response to his failure to win the Nobel Peace Prize last year.

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“Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace,” Trump’s letter begins.

Read the full exchange between Trump and Prime Minister Støre here. 

This Week in Switzerland: Trump Makes Davos Matter Again (Politico)

Peace Under Review

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Trump Wants Nations to Pay $1 Billion to Stay on Peace Board (Bloomberg)

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The Trump administration is asking countries that want a permanent spot on his new Board of Peace to contribute at least $1 billion.

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The US president has invited a range of world leaders to become founding members of the board as part of his 20-point plan to ensure a lasting peace and reconstruction of Gaza, following two years of devastating war between Israel and militant group Hamas in the Palestinian territory.

View the full list of countries invited to the Board of Peace here. 

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According to a draft charter for the proposed group seen by Bloomberg, President Trump would serve as its inaugural chairman and would decide who is invited to be members. Decisions would be taken by a majority, with each member state present getting one vote, but all would be subject to the chairman’s approval.

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Trump would also be responsible for approving the group’s official seal, the document says.

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Several told Bloomberg they saw it as a clear attempt by Trump to set up a rival or replacement for the United Nations, a body of which he has been a long-standing critic. They said the board was about far more than the reconstruction of Gaza and that Trump sees it as a vehicle to resolve other conflicts and control international events.

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Several nations strongly oppose the draft of Trump’s charter and are working on collectively pushing back against the proposals, the people added.

Invite for Russia: Trump Invited Vladimir Putin to Join Gaza ‘Board of Peace,’ Kremlin Says (Bloomberg)
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has received an invitation to join Donald Trump’s proposed Board of Peace for Gaza, the Kremlin said.

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Putin “received an offer through diplomatic channels” and Russia aims to contact the US side to clarify all the details of the proposal, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday.

Argentine President Javier Milei and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are set to become founding members of the Gaza committee, they said Saturday, while other invitees include Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Brazil’s leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Trump wants the full constitution and remit of the committee signed in Davos  on Thursday, according to people familiar with the matter. But some elements of the small print have left invitees wondering whether to accept.

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to endorse the board, saying only that he’d talk with allies about a response.

Midnight Meltdown

While you were sleeping: In a series of extraordinary late-night statements, the president doubled down on his threats to take over Greenland — and Canada — while at turns mocking, threatening and humiliating the European leaders who have resisted his advances. This crisis feels like it’s spiraling out of control, according to Politico Playbook.

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Trump’s hyper-aggressive response is little short of a disaster for NATO allies who have spent the past few days desperately trying to calm things down, Playbook reports.

Trump threatened to slap France with a 200-percent tariff on wine and Champagne after learning French President Emmanuel Macron is snubbing the same board over fears it seeks to ape and overshadow the U.N. — concerns widely shared around Europe, per the FT.

After boarding Air Force One, a still-rankled Trump published a private text message from Macron showing the French president reaching out to him in friendly terms. In the text, Macron offers to work closely with Trump on Middle Eastern projects and to host emergency G7 talks in Paris later this week. “I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland,” Macron writes, according to Politico.

By 1 a.m. last night, Trump was busily posting AI-generated images to illustrate his designs on Greenland — one showing him planting a US flag on the island, a second of him showing a  modified map of the Americas to European leaders in which the US owns Greenland, Canada and Venezuela (pictured below). Are we about to see the first empire built entirely by meme?

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What I'm Reading

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Eyes on Minnesota: FBI, Pentagon Ready Possible Minnesota Surge to Back ICE (Bloomberg)

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The US is taking steps to vastly increase the number of law enforcement agents and potentially send military personnel to Minneapolis, where immigration agents have tangled with residents protesting their tactics.

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At the same time, the FBI is sending messages to its agents nationwide seeking volunteers to temporarily transfer to Minneapolis. It wasn’t immediately clear what the FBI would ask them to do.

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FBI agents have traditionally focused on national security-related tasks such as counter-terrorism, organized crime and high-profile violent offenses, not street patrols or immigration-related enforcement.

Footage Visibility: Video Analysis of ICE Shooting Sheds Light on Contested Moments (New York Times)

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In a video analysis, The New York Times focuses on some of the key contested moments of the agent’s cellphone video alongside other footage. More videos are likely to emerge, but the visual evidence shows no indication that the agent who fired the shots, Jonathan Ross, had been run over.

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The footage provides visibility into the positioning between the agent and Renee Good’s S.U.V., and the key moments of escalation. It also establishes how Ross put himself in a dangerous position near her vehicle in the first place.

Tragedy in Spain: Dozens Killed After High-Speed Train Derails Traveling Between Madrid and Málaga (Bloomberg)

Extreme Climate: Chile Declares 'State of Catastrophe' as Wildfires Leave at Least 18 Dead (BBC)

Trump's Next Target: Trump Blasts Jamie Dimon, Threatens to Sue JPMorgan Over Debanking (Bloomberg)

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President Trump says he’ll be “suing JPMorgan Chase over the next two weeks for incorrectly and inappropriately DEBANKING me” after the January 6 protests.

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Trump claimed in August that JPMorgan “discriminated against me very badly” when he alleged the bank asked him to close accounts he held for decades, an action he believes was connected to his supporters storming the Capitol to stop the 2021 certification of President Joe Biden’s victory. The bank later said it’s facing reviews, investigations and legal proceedings tied to the Trump administration’s fight against “debanking.”

Thank You Sir, May I Have Another? Kevin Hassett Says Trump May Be Right to Keep Him Out as Fed Chair (Bloomberg)

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Double Clemency: Trump Pardons Convicted Fraudster Again After Earlier Pardon Grant (Bloomberg)

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Opinion: Mamdani Needs Better Political Time Management (City & State New York - Bill Cunningham)

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Out of Business: Trump Store to Close as Sales Falter, With No Election Battles Ahead (New York Times)

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Nestled in a strip mall in suburban Philadelphia, The Trump Store is hard to miss, with its all-caps sign in bold next to a photo of President Trump hugging the American flag. But after six years of drawing MAGA supporters from all over, the 800-square-foot store, which sports everything from hats and watches emblazoned with the president’s name, is closing.

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Trump’s approval rating is mired at 42%, according to a New York Times polling average. The only presidency this century that had a lower approval rating at this point in a term was also Trump’s, during his first term.

Coming to DC: Sphere Plans New Venue in Washington Area After Vegas Success (Bloomberg)

The operator of Las Vegas’s Sphere is planning to build a new venue in the Washington metropolitan area, adding a second US location following a successful start for its original orb-like arena. The new 6,000-seat venue will be located in National Harbor, Maryland, about 15 minutes from the US capital.

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Sphere is expanding its footprint after opening the $2.3 billion Las Vegas Sphere in 2023, and making it one of the top-grossing venues worldwide with residencies by the likes of U2 and The Eagles.

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The first smaller-sized Sphere, the National Harbor venue will feature a display with 16K resolution and incorporate technologies such as immersive audio, haptic seating and 4D environment effects.

National Championship Win: Indiana Defeats Miami 27-21 in Most Astonishing Turnaround, Winning First National Title (New York Times - The Athletic)
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NFL Playoff Schedule: Broncos-Patriots, Seahawks-Rams to Meet in Championship Games (New York Times - The Athletic)

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Streaming Guide: 'Industry' Takes Story to Chilling New Places in Fourth Season with Stomach-Churning Downfalls, New Villain Eras (BBC)

HBO’s Industry, now in its fourth season, follows a group of ambitious young financiers navigating high-stakes deals, cutthroat competition, and personal drama at a top London investment bank.

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Starring Myha’la Herrold, Marisa Abela, and Harry Lawtey, the show dives deep into the pressures, power plays, and temptations of the finance world. 

The Bloomberg Terminal even makes a cameo on set, appearing in multiple scenes, as pictured below. Catch new episodes every Sunday on HBO.

Best of SNL

On Trump's first year back in office:

"I don't know if you remember, but Trump promised us 'America First,' yet it's only our one year anniversary and he's already opening our relationship up to other countries."
-- Colin Jost

"Trump declared himself the Acting President of Venezuela, by next week he will be the Interim Ayatollah of Iran, and then onto his ultimate goal, Head Reindeer of Greenland."
-- Colin Jost

"Happy New Year, I hope everyone had a nice holiday and got what they wanted for Christmas. I got what I wanted -- my very own somebody else's Nobel Peace Prize"
-- James Austin Johnson, playing President Trump

And from the Cold Open: President Trump (James Austin Johnson) addresses the nation about recent events with help from Marco Rubio (Marcello Hernández), JD Vance (Jeremy Culhane), Kristi Noem (Ashley Padilla) and Pete Hegseth (Colin Jost). Click the photo below to watch.

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