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Irreversible Impact: Iran War's Economic Aftershocks Will Be Felt Around the World Indefinitely (Axios)

Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But the economic fallout from five weeks of effective closure is just beginning.

Supply chains don't unsnarl overnight. The gloomiest forecasts for the US economy from the war may not come to pass, but shortages and price shocks will continue to pinch the world for months.

The backlog of stranded ships could take weeks to clear even under ideal circumstances. Infrastructure damage from attacks in recent weeks has resulted in energy shortages across the globe and could take years to repair. It will take time to restart production at facilities that curtailed output.
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And there are real prospects that Iran will now effectively tax shipments through the strait indefinitely, creating a new constraint on the global supply of oil and other commodities that didn't exist before the war.

Traders don't see prices falling back to pre-war levels this year, according to forward-looking oil futures contracts, suggesting higher energy prices for months to come. The price surge comes alongside shortages for fertilizer, helium and other critical inputs that might continue to hamstring global manufacturers.

Mideast Latest: JD Vance to Lead Iran Talks as Tehran Says Ceasefire Violated (Bloomberg)
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The White House announced the US would hold direct talks with Iran even as continued fighting in the Middle East, punctuated by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, threatened to derail the fragile ceasefire in the six-week conflict.

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Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Vice President JD Vance will lead a delegation to Islamabad, which would include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The first round of talks is set for Saturday morning local time, even as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed as of Thursday morning, falling short of a key US condition for the ceasefire.

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Conflict Explainer: Trump’s Gut Decided on Iran War, While His Aides Cleared the Path (New York Times)

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For Trump, it was a gut-driven decision enabled by an echo chamber that did not exist in his first term.

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Trump’s decision to take the country to war was not driven by intelligence assessments or a strategic consensus among his advisers, which did not exist. It was driven by instinct — the same instinct his team had watched produce improbable results again and again.

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Unlike his first-term team, many of whom regarded him as a danger to be managed or obstructed, Trump in his second term is surrounded by advisers who view him as a great man of history.

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After his improbable comeback in 2024, after indictments and assassination attempts, and after ordering the flawless operation that captured Maduro in Venezuela, the people around Trump had developed an almost superstitious faith in his destiny and instincts, and in his power to will new realities into existence. In making this high-stakes and high-risk decision, almost everyone deferred to the president’s gut.

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Surrounded by people trying to execute Trump’s desires, and with so much having gone his way to that point, almost nothing stood between the instinct and the act.

How to Launch a Book

Is Mike Bloomberg New York City’s Most Important Bookfluencer? (Town&Country)

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The Bloomberg Philanthropies Headquarters has become the place in New York to have a book party, one that regularly attracts power players simply by nature of the host, Town&Country writes. 

Mike Bloomberg “has always loved throwing book events to fuel conversation,” says Maryam Banikarim, a longtime chief marketing officer who also hosts the podcast The Messy Parts. “It’s a beautiful room, and the perfect place for a book party.”
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Typically, the authors feted at Bloomberg Philanthropies are of the blue chip, nonfiction variety. That means they’re already more than pretty well connected. Think former Disney CEO Bob Iger and his book The Ride of a Lifetime; Walter Isaacson, whose latest tome dissects the second sentence of the Declaration of Independence, or CBS News correspondent Norah O’Donnell, who celebrated the publication of We the Women: The Hidden Heroes Who Shaped America at Bloomberg Philanthropies, Town&Country reports. 

Last week, Ruthie Rogers, the owner of London’s ever-popular River Cafe, celebrated the publication of her new book, Table 4 at the River Cafe, alongside Mike Bloomberg:

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“The parties there—well, it’s less a party party—are substantive and serious and they have a lot of sizzle,” says Darren Walker, a member of the Bloomberg board of directors who launched his recent book The Idea of America with a party at Bloomberg Philanthropies attended by, among others, Oprah Winfrey.

Of Walker’s dozen or so events for the book, he says his party at Bloomberg was the first but also “the most impactful and successful,” Town&Country reports. “It was the largest one,” he explains, “and it received a tremendous amount of attention on social media. So it really established a momentum that carried the book forward.”

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“Most of it is very organic,” says Rachel Nagler, who leads external communications at Bloomberg Philanthropies. “It comes out of our work here and often for philanthropic partners working on the issues we care about.”

It’s people on the Bloomberg Philanthropies board—like Bob Iger and Walter Isaacson—people whose philanthropic missions align with the organization, which include arts, public health and the environment, and, of course, people who are friends of Bloomberg or his top brass.

What I'm Reading

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Transatlantic Tensions: Trump Weighs Punishing Certain NATO Countries Over Lack of Iran War Support (Wall Street Journal)
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The Trump administration is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that he believes were unhelpful to the US and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials.
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The proposal would involve moving US troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and station them in countries that were more supportive of the US military campaign. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the U.S. from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress.
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The plan, which has circulated and gained support among senior administration officials in recent weeks, is early in conception and one of several options the White House is discussing to punish NATO. 

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NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte traveled to Washington on Wednesday to meet with Trump. Rutte has sought to deepen ties with Trump despite tensions in the transatlantic alliance and was among those who convinced him not to take over Greenland.

GOP Warning Signs: Georgia, Wisconsin Elections Show Declining Appetite for Republican Candidates (New York Times)

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On Tuesday night, voters in a conservative and rural corner of Georgia sent a Republican, Clay Fuller, to Congress to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene. But they did so with decidedly less enthusiasm than they showed two years ago: All 10 of the district’s counties shifted by double digits toward the Democratic candidate compared with the 2024 presidential election.

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And in Wisconsin, voters again handed a liberal Supreme Court candidate, Chris Taylor, a commanding victory over a conservative rival, cementing a five-to-two liberal majority on the state’s high court. Judge Taylor’s victory came by an even wider margin than the 2023 and 2025 liberal triumphs in Wisconsin Supreme Court elections that drew national attention and served as magnets for political donors.

Weather Whiplash: Hawaii Could Face More Flooding, Weeks After Devastating Storms (Washington Post)
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Hawaii is bracing for more serious deluges and potential flash flooding, just weeks after record-breaking rain soaked the state.

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Flood watches are in effect for the entire state this week, which is still recovering from the last storms. Still-sodden ground mean there’s a heightened risk of impacts, with the possibility of landslides, road closures and property damage.

Damage from the March storms is expected to top $1 billion, said Gov. Josh Green, who recently launched a disaster case management program for impacted residents while the state waits to hear about federal help.

British Solar Surge: Government Approves UK's Largest Solar Farm in Clean Energy Drive (BBC)

The UK's largest power-producing solar farm has been approved by the government after a planning inquiry. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero gave the go-ahead despite opposition from residents.

"It is crucial we learn the lessons of the conflict in the Middle East – solar is one of the cheapest forms of power available and is how we get off the rollercoaster of international fossil fuel markets and secure our own energy independence," said Energy Minister Michael Shanks.

Digital Clampdown: Greece to Impose Social Media Ban for Children Under 15 (Bloomberg)

Today in North Korea: China’s Top Envoy Visits Pyongyang for First Time Since 2019 in Aim to Strengthen Ties (Bloomberg)

Closed Model Rollout: Meta Debuts First AI Model From New Superintelligence Group (Bloomberg)
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Meta debuted its latest artificial intelligence model Wednesday — its first since Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerberg embarked on a multibillion-dollar overhaul of the company’s AI organization to keep pace with rivals.
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The highly anticipated model, known as Muse Spark, was created by Meta Superintelligence Labs, the new team of expensive AI researchers helmed by Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang. Muse Spark will power the Meta AI chatbot, and in a pivot from the company’s prior open-source strategy, is a closed model, meaning its design and code won’t be made public.

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🎧 Catch today’s Daily Read Podcast for a smarter look at the day’s biggest headlines. We break down the key stories with context, insights, and why they matter, so you can stay informed fast. Listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Morning Shift: Savannah Guthrie’s Determination Amid Family Tragedy Brings New Morning to NBC’s ‘Today’ (Variety)

NY Transit Tensions: Long Island Rail Road Strike Looms, as M.T.A. and Unions Reach Impasse (New York Times)
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Long Island Rail Road workers are prepared to go on strike as early as May 16 if they can’t agree on a new contract with transit officials, labor leaders said on Wednesday — a move that would be a major blow to America’s busiest passenger rail service.

Tech Pressure: MacBook Neo Demand is So Strong It's Creating Supply Headaches for Apple (TechSpot)
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Apple is facing an unexpected test of its supply chain strategy after surging sales of the MacBook Neo, the lightweight laptop built around Apple's A18 Pro processor, created shortages of key components originally intended to be recycled stock.

Sources familiar with the matter tell tech journalist Tim Culpan that the company is in discussions with suppliers about whether to expand production or let inventories run down, a decision that could shape margins and influence Apple's broader hardware roadmap.

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Best of Late Night

On Trump backing down from threats he made against the Middle East:

"This is how it goes every single time. Trump says something insane — he says, ‘I’m going to kill everybody tomorrow at 5 p.m.’ — we all freak out, and then he’s like, ‘Actually, I’ll kill everyone in two weeks.’ And then we relax and then he forgets he ever said it in the first place."
-- Jimmy Kimmel

“Maybe the worst part of all is how relaxed the congressional Republicans are about it. Now, he threatens to annihilate a civilization, and they’re like, ‘Well, you know how he is. He’s a big talker, he yaps.’” 
-- Jimmy Kimmel

“And it’s always two weeks. He’s like a conscientious employee. He always gives two weeks’ notice.”
-- Jimmy Kimmel

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And from Saturday Night Live: A group of coworkers (Jack Black, Kenan Thompson, Mikey Day, Sarah Sherman) get interrupted by their annoying colleague (Ashley Padilla). Click the photo below to watch.
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