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Global Retribution Agenda: Trump Weighs Consequences for NATO Allies on 'Naughty' List (Politico)
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The White House has developed something akin to a “naughty and nice” list of NATO countries, as the Trump administration looks for ways to punish allies who refused to back the Iran war, Politico writes. 

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The effort, which officials worked on ahead of NATO head Mark Rutte’s visit to Washington this month, includes an overview of members’ contributions to the alliance and places them into tiers, according to three European diplomats and a US defense official familiar with the plan.

It’s the latest sign that President Donald Trump plans to make good on his threats against allies who don’t adhere to his wishes. And it’s another pressure point on the increasingly frayed alliance, which has been battered by Trump’s attacks — from his push to annex Greenland to his warning of a complete withdrawal from the pact.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth floated the broad idea in December. “Model allies that step up, like Israel, South Korea, Poland, increasingly Germany, the Baltics and others, will receive our special favor,” he said. “Allies that still fail to do their part for collective defense will face consequences.”

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Officials have provided little clarity on what the favors or consequences might be, according to Politico. 

Burying the Data

Science Sidelined: C.D.C. Cancels Publication of Study Showing Benefits of Covid Vaccines (New York Times)

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The acting head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has canceled the publication of a study that found that the Covid vaccine sharply cut the odds of hospitalizations and emergency visits last winter, a Health Department spokesman said.

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Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who has been overseeing the agency’s operations in the absence of a director, objected to the study’s design, saying it painted an inaccurate picture of the vaccine’s effectiveness.

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The study, conducted by C.D.C. scientists, calculated the effectiveness of Covid shots by looking at the vaccination status of people who had sought care at hospitals and emergency rooms. It found that vaccination cut the likelihood of emergency visits due to Covid by 50% and of hospitalizations by 55%, the New York Times reports. 

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It was scheduled to be published on March 19 in The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the C.D.C.’s flagship journal. News of its cancellation was reported earlier by The Washington Post.

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Some former C.D.C. officials said it was unusual for the head of the agency to cancel a scientific publication that had already been cleared by the agency’s staff scientists and had been scheduled for publication.

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The cancellation has raised concerns among current and former officials that information about the vaccine’s benefits is being downplayed because it conflicts with the views of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has been an outspoken critic of the shots. Kennedy’s vaccine agenda has received pointed questioning from lawmakers during budget hearings that began last week, according to The Washington Post. 

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Can Democrats Flip the Senate?

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Republican Anxiety Grows: Why a Democratic Senate, Once Unthinkable, Is a Real Possibility (New York Times)

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At the start of the 2026 election cycle, the Senate looked far out of reach for the Democrats. The House always seemed competitive, but retaking the Senate would require flipping at least four Republican-held seats — including at least two seats in states that President Trump won by double digits in 2024. In today’s polarized era, Democrats would need everything to break their way.

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So far, everything is breaking the Democrats’ way. With Trump’s approval rating falling and inflation rising, along with the uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, it’s not hard to imagine a Democratic tsunami in November. A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured of flipping two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.

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In recent polls, Democrats appear tied or ahead in four Republican-controlled seats — the number they would need to take the Senate. These include Maine and North Carolina, where the likely Democratic nominees hold clear leads, as well as Ohio and  Alaska, where Democrats have recruited strong candidates in states Trump won by double digits in 2024. There are also signs that Republicans could be in danger in two more states where Trump won by double digits: Iowa and Texas.

New Poll: Dems Lead by Six Points in Battleground Districts (Cook Political Report) 

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Democrats hold a six-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, 50% to 44%. If that advantage were to hold come November, any district Trump carried by 10 points or less could be in significant danger of flipping into Democratic hands.

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Map Fight: Virginia Judge Blocks Redistricting Plan Approved by Voters (Bloomberg)

A Virginia judge halted the implementation of a voter-approved plan to redraw the state’s congressional maps in a way that would have led to more US House seats for Democrats.

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The order was handed down Wednesday by Judge Jack Hurley in Tazewell County, who said the redistricting measure violated state law. The ruling, siding with the Republican National Committee, which had sued earlier, comes a day after Virginia voters approved the redistricting plan.

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Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones, a Democrat, said the state would appeal the judge’s decision. “Virginia voters have spoken, and an activist judge should not have veto power over the people’s vote,” Jones said in a statement. “We look forward to defending the outcome of last night’s election in court.”

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Trump had previously blasted the state’s plans in a social media post and speculated about whether “the courts will fix this travesty”:

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Virginia’s vote came after a yearlong national battle sparked by Trump and Republicans who sought to change voting boundaries to aid the GOP in Texas, prompting similar efforts in other states, including Democrat-controlled California and Virginia. The new lines in Virginia will make Democrats favored in as many as 10 of 11 House districts.

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So far, the US Supreme Court has permitted the recent moves to revise voting districts. In December, the justices cleared the way for a new map in Texas. In February, the court allowed a plan to expand representation for Democrats in California, where voters had approved the measure in response to the move by Texas.

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GOP Cash Cushion: Republicans Have One Midterm Edge, and It’s Worth $600 Million (New York Times)

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Individual Democratic candidates in key midterm races are doing much better financially than their Republican counterparts. But the party should not get too excited about having more cash.

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That’s because the Republican Party’s main political committees and allied groups have built a staggering advantage of roughly $600 million over the Democratic ones. The Republican side has about $843.6 million stockpiled compared with just $243 million for Democrats, accounting for debts.

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The cash gap could help level the playing field financially or even give Republicans the upper hand as they pour money into advertising, field operations and other expenses of a midterm campaign.

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What I'm Reading

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Trade on the Rocks: US Trade Czar Threatens Canada Over Boycott That’s Hurting Booze Makers (Bloomberg)

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US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the US might have to take action against Canada over its rejection of American wine and spirits.

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Several Canadian provinces pulled US-made alcohol from stores last year after President Donald Trump started a trade war, costing makers of bourbon and other products millions of dollars in lost sales. The list includes alcohol distributors in Ontario and Quebec, which have about 60% of Canada’s population.

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The boycott was a source of bipartisan concern Wednesday at a US Congressional hearing, with lawmakers from New York and California raising the issue with Greer.

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“There are two countries that have retaliated economically against the United States in the past year: the People’s Republic of China and Canada,” Greer said. “My sense is there may have to be an enforcement action to deal with this issue on wine and spirits in Canada.” He didn’t outline any specifics.

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Liquor stores are regulated by provincial governments in Canada, and the federal government can’t force provinces to end the boycott. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has been an enthusiastic proponent of retaliating against US tariffs, said he’s willing to relent on alcohol sales — once the US backs down on the tariffs hurting his province’s economy.

Wartime Shakeup: Navy Secretary Ousted After Infighting With Top Pentagon Leaders (Bloomberg)
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Navy Secretary John Phelan was fired after clashing with top leaders at the Pentagon, including over administration efforts to revive US shipbuilding, making him the latest high-profile Pentagon departure amid the war in Iran.

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Phelan was pushed out after butting heads with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg over President Donald Trump’s focus on what the administration has dubbed a new US “Golden Fleet.” A White House official said Trump and Hegseth agreed new leadership was needed over the Navy.

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Britain Goes Clean: UK Electricity From Fossil Fuels Drops to Record Low of Just 2% (Bloomberg)

UK power generation from fossil fuels fell to the lowest level since records started in 2009, highlighting the country’s rapid shift toward renewable energy.

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The expansion of solar and wind generation is central to the UK’s target of attaining a 95% clean power grid by 2030. Policymakers are betting that a higher share of low-cost renewable energy will bring down consumer electricity bills over time.

Coming Up in Climate: Turkey Says COP31 Climate Summit to Focus on Clean Energy Shift (Bloomberg)

Turkey will use its role as host of this year’s COP31 climate summit to boost clean energy adoption, according to the event’s incoming president, with the Iran war showing how important it is to diversify away from fossil fuels.

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Today in Good News: Johns Hopkins “Bloomberg School” Marks 25 Years of Progress Toward a Healthier World (JHU)
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Today marks 25 years since the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the world’s first and largest public health graduate institution, officially took on its current name.

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The School’s name honors Mike Bloomberg’s significant contributions, both in leadership and philanthropy, to helping public health thrive at Johns Hopkins and around the world.

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Learn more here about the initiatives of the Bloomberg School of Public Health, and about the public health work of Bloomberg Philanthropies here. 

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Airline Bailout: US Could Own Up to 90% of Spirit as Part of $500 Million Rescue (Bloomberg)

Access Breach: Anthropic’s Mythos Model Is Being Accessed by Unauthorized Users (Bloomberg)

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A small group of unauthorized users have accessed Anthropic PBC’s new Mythos AI model, a technology that the company says is so powerful it can enable dangerous cyberattacks.

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A handful of users in a private online forum gained access to Mythos on the same day that Anthropic first announced a plan to release the model to a limited number of companies for testing purposes. The group has been using Mythos regularly since then, though not for cybersecurity purposes.

AI Race Advances: Google Releases New AI Agents to Challenge OpenAI and Anthropic (Bloomberg)

Betting Stumble: Polymarket Loses Prediction-Market Lead to Rival Kalshi After Delays, Blowback (Bloomberg)

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Baseball Blame Game: New York Mets Losing Streak Has Fans Blaming Everyone, Even Mamdani (Bloomberg)

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The New York Mets can’t stop losing, and New Yorkers are looking for someone to blame.

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Scapegoat No. 1? For many fans, it’s New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Social media posts and videos have swirled in recent days alleging that he placed a curse on the team when he embraced Mr. and Mrs. Met at Citi Field on April 9. The Mets have now dropped 12 games in a row, their longest stretch of losses in more than two decades.

Robot Rally: Ping Pong Robot Uses Agentic AI to Beat Expert Human Players (Bloomberg)

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Scientists at Sony AI have developed a table tennis robot with enough speed and precision to beat even some expert ping pong players in the latest matchup between biological and artificial intelligence.

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The robot, dubbed “Ace,” combines vision sensors, model-free reinforcement learning and high-speed robotic hardware in a crane-like lever with a ping pong bat attached. The resulting system can autonomously locate a ping pong ball in space, determine the correct technique needed to return it to an opponent’s side, and repeat the process until a play is over.

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Researchers at Sony AI tested Ace in a series of games against highly ranked table tennis players. Without any prior knowledge of the opponents’ style of play, the robot won seven out of 13 games against five different elite athletes.

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Ace during a game against table tennis player Minami Ando.Source: Sony AI

Best of Late Night

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On the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict:

“Shutting down the strait of Hormuz? Well, cry me a Horiver.”
-- Jon Stewart

“Our whole lives, the Strait of Hormuz has been so wide open, we didn’t even know it existed. We put Trump in charge and in eight weeks, it’s been blocked more times than Melania’s bedroom door.”
-- Jimmy Kimmel

“But the truth is, we only fought this war to get Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, that they closed when we started this war.” 
-- Jon Stewart

“And yes, it was already open before we started the war, but I believe the real Strait of Hormuz was the friends we made along the way. I’m sorry, what’s that? And I’m being told we made no friends.”
-- Stephen Colbert

And from The Daily Show: In the midst of an unpopular war with Iran and a heated pope fight, Jordan Klepper went to a Turning Point USA event in Phoenix to see if the MAGA crowd was still on board the Trump train. Click the photo below to watch. 
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