Op-ed: US Renewable Energy is Here, Now, to Meet Soaring Demand.
By Carl Pope.
The US has made remarkable progress in expanding its renewable energy capacity – just as demand for power soars with new gigawatt-hungry data centers popping up across the country as AI and tech companies consume more and more energy. Just last month, more than half of US power was coming from zero carbon sources. And according to BNEF’s latest report, US renewable energy generation will increase by 84% in the next five years.
But this progress is facing new headwinds with the Trump administration’s promotion of fossil fuels to the exclusion of anything else is undercutting its twin goals of reindustrializing the US and boosting its energy dominance.
Cheap, clean, globally available energy is one of the key US tools to achieve both of these goals.
The core error Trump is making is assuming that export of fossil fuels is the highest value of energy for the US economy. In reality, energy is more important for what we make using it than for what we earn selling it.
Starting on Inauguration Day, Trump has used every tool made available to him to obstruct the timely and low-cost deployment of local energy – solar panels on Illinois rooftops, wind turbines off the Carolina Coast, batteries made in Georgia factories, high performance reconductoring transmission lines in Oklahoma.
This week analysts expect the President to redefine “public interest” to assert that clean air, water and landscapes are not eligible for charitable contributions; it is not in the public interest, Trump will proclaim, for Los Angeles to breathe, Flint Michigan to have safe drinking water, or Florida to be protected from storm surge.
Even more radical legislation pending in Texas would make it illegal for anyone to use wind or sun to generate power unless they also built an equal amount of gas or coal – even though the gas industry has told the legislators that there is no capacity to build any substantial gas and coal generation before 2030.
What’s more, Texas needs to add 35% of new power generation from plants before 2030. Analysts say, if passed, the bill would dramatically limit economic growth in Texas making most new power illegal. (Imagine this headline: ‘Economic Growth Illegal in Texas’)
Fortunately the private sector across the United States is welcoming the arrival of cheap, reliable, clean and American solar and wind power along with the high-tech transmission and storage that make them 24/7 energy solutions. Energy analysts in the US Energy Information Agency report that in Trump’s first year in office, 97% of new electricity added to the US grid will be renewable sourced, only 3% will be coal or gas. EIA also projects that by 2050 demand for electricity will have increased by 50%. Trumps policy proposals that are expected this week would prevent all of this progress.
How this should work in sensible practice is illustrated in what the government of Texas is currently doing – or was until a proposed cap on power growth started moving in the legislature:
The Permian Basin produces most of Texas oil and gas. Much of the energy needed to pump Permian wells, operate pipelines, and purify oil for distribution comes from Permian gas. But electricity from wind and solar are much cheaper for the operating an oil field. So ERCOT (the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), which oversees the Texas grid, is investing $5 billion in new distribution lines to bring cheap renewable power to electrify the Permian. This in turn will free up Permian gas to be sold at speculatively priced LNG terminals. It’s cheaper, that is, to operate an oil field with renewable electricity than with gas from those very same wells, because electricity is more efficient than fossil fuels. Once again it is clean energy for the climate that is also cheap energy for growth – a fact the market responds to.
And this private sector common sense is not limited to Texas. In the neighboring Southwest Power Pool grid managers are planning to meet significant demand growth in large part with another high value energy source – energy efficiency.
But the President’s “nothing but fossil fuel” mantra still puts the US economy at risk. Standing still is not enough to make America Great. Rapidly growing demand for more electricity requires an acceleration of installing solar, wind, and linking with new storage and transmission – perhaps 28% in the next two years, and 50% more power by 2050. The North American Reliability Council fears that 80% of the country could be short of power.
Developers agree virtually no new coal or gas capacity can be completed within the next four years – max. measely 80 GW. However, in the queue for approval is 12,000 GW of potential new storage, solar and wind far more than will be needed. Each project needs to be selected by a state, city or major private power consumer for how they meet their 2028 & 2029 needs best. What is becoming clear: Washington won’t do that job any more.
If America is to survive future power shortages or escape black outs, local users of electricity must take much deeper responsibility for their own planning and needs.
If a state fails to select enough new solar projects to meet its economic objectives, its cities need to step forward and plan. If cities too fail to lead, businesses dependent on electricity should step into the gap. And civic society should begin, immediately asking the tough questions: how much additional power does out community need? How we can we make sure power is provided affordably and reliably? Who is not doing their part?
Are we each individually and collectively prepared to avoid becoming the blackout capitol of our own region? That’s not up to the Trump administration, or Washington.
It’s up to us!