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All Hat, No Cattle: US Oil Output Set for First Annual Drop Since Pandemic (Financial Times)
US oil production will fall next year for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a government forecast that will cast new doubt on President Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda. The Energy Information Administration, a division of the energy department, on Tuesday said US oil production would drop from a record high of 13.5 million barrels a day now to about 13.3 million barrels by the end of next year, as slumping oil prices rattle the sector.
“With fewer active drilling rigs, we forecast US operators will drill and complete fewer wells through 2026,” the EIA said in a monthly report published yesterday. Active rigs had “decreased by much more” than expected in a previous report, it said. Some analysts expect US oil output to fall more steeply in the coming months. S&P Global Commodity Insights this week said total production could fall by 640,000 b/d from mid-2025 to the end of next year — a drop greater than the total produced by some OPEC countries.
Tentative Agreement: US, China Officials Agree on Plan That Awaits Xi, Trump Sign-Off (Bloomberg)
After some 20 hours of negotiations in London, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said both sides had established a framework for implementing the Geneva consensus that last month brought down tariffs.
Jim Cramer: Why Do We Have a Bitcoin Reserve and No Rare Earth Reserve? (CNBC)
What exactly were we thinking starting a trade war without having this rare earth elements issue all buttoned up and ready to go? How did we get so far along in this contest of wills when we hadn’t invested the money to explore rare earth material refining and production in this country?
The group of 17 minerals known as rare earths are used to make smartphones, tablets, speakers, touch screens, wind turbines, solar panels, robotics, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors, lasers, electric vehicles, and, yes, the F-35 fighter jet, which uses a huge amount of rare earth minerals. Given all that, shouldn’t someone have checked to see if we had refining capacity and were hoarding these the way we do oil in the strategic petroleum reserve? Why do we have a bitcoin reserve and no rare earth reserve?
NJ Politics: Sherrill, Ciattarelli Win Primaries in Governor’s Race (Bloomberg)
New Jersey voters have chosen Mikie Sherrill to face off against Jack Ciattarelli, pitting a moderate Democrat against a Trump-endorsed Republican in the first gubernatorial election since last year’s presidential race.
Follow the Money: Blackstone Plans to Invest $500 Billion in Europe (Bloomberg)
In response to the continent's growing appeal to investors during a period of geopolitical flux, Blackstone is planning to invest as much as $500 billion in Europe over the next decade.
“We see it as a major opportunity for us,” CEO Steve Schwarzman said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Tuesday. “They are starting to change their approach here, which we think will result in higher growth rates. So this has worked out amazingly well for us.”
Gun Terror in Graz: Austria in Mourning after School Shooting Leaves 11 Dead (New York Times)
Succession Watch: Scott Bessent Emerging as Contender to Succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell When Term Ends in May 2026 (Bloomberg)
The Future of Work: At Amazon, Some Coders Say Their Jobs Have Begun to Resemble Warehouse Work (New York Times)
France Latest: Macron Doesn’t Rule Out Calling Snap Elections Again (Bloomberg)
Dissolving the National Assembly could threaten the relative stability France has enjoyed since December, when Macron named Francois Bayrou as prime minister.
Brazil Latest: Ex-president Jair Bolsonaro Appears in Court on Attempted Coup Charges (France 24)
Mideast Policy Shift? US Holds Deep Doubts About Palestinian State, Ambassador Says (Bloomberg)
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NYC Dining Guide: The 100 Best Restaurants in New York City (New York Times)
New York City has 20,000 restaurants. How could anyone narrow that embarrassment of riches down to 100 amazing dining experiences? The Times does a valiant public service with this year's list, which includes answers to questions like: Where would we send our friends? Which places are worth a splurge? Worth an hourlong subway ride?
I was particularly happy to see George Motz's Hamburger America, which is pulling huge crowds in Soho, make the grade. As the Times says, this former student of the hamburger is now a master. And he's created a restaurant that is both worth the subway ride and a place to send your friends—no splurge required.
BREAKING THIS MORNING: Elon says sorry. “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far,” Elon Musk wrote on X at, erm, 3.04 a.m. this morning. It follows Musk’s decision to delete some of his most egregious messages about Trump from last Thursday’s blowup — yes, including the Jeffrey Epstein one — and marks the culmination of a pretty unprecedented climbdown, by Musk’s standards. There’s no sign of a response from the president as yet, but he’ll surely be lapping it up.
Popcorn at the ready: And if that’s not enough theater for you, Trump — joined by the lesser-spotted Melania — will head to the Kennedy Center this evening for the opening night of “Les Misérables.” Trump, of course, fired the arts center’s entire board in February and appointed himself chair. And now — as luck would have it — his favorite musical’s coming to town. Enhanced security will be in place all day, though whether that stops Trump getting the JD Vance treatment remains to be seen.
Plot twist: For those who haven’t seen it, “Les Mis” follows a group of 19th-century king-hating revolutionaries who take to the streets against their authoritarian government, but ultimately see their hopes of change crushed. It’s hard to see how it could have any real relevance today.
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