Unthinkable Scenario: The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us (Wall Street Journal)

‌

“In the whole written history of the Strait (of Hormuz), it has never been closed, ever,” said JPMorgan Chase analyst Natasha Kaneva. “To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.”

Day 10: Iran Picks Khamenei’s Son as Next Supreme Leader,  Escalating War Sends Oil Soaring Past $100 a Barrel (Bloomberg)

Iran picked Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader and kept up attacks across the Middle East, hitting a water plant in Bahrain, while Israel struck fuel depots in Tehran and threatened the Islamic Republic’s power grid. Despite the onslaught, Iran has said it has the capacity to sustain the war for months.

‌

The war has already unleashed unprecedented disruption, sending oil over $100 a barrel and sinking US stock futures. 

‌

The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have already started reducing oil production as storage runs out, joining Iraq, whose output is now down about 60%.

‌

Others may be forced to follow as oil tankers continue avoiding the narrow Strait of Hormuz, rapidly reducing the number of empty ones available for loading. Once all the vessels are taken, the region’s remaining on-land storage will fill even quicker.

‌

The nastiest effects of the energy shock are being felt in Asia. The Gulf supplies 40-80% of the seaborne crude imports of China, India, Japan and South Korea. It also accounts for nearly a third of China’s LNG imports, more than half of India’s and much more for some smaller Asian countries.

In 2025, Asia absorbed 87% of the crude and 86% of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) transiting via the Strait of Hormuz. Now the strait is blocked and Asia risks running out of fuel, fast. Many governments and firms see a grave threat—and are struggling to respond. The knock-on effects on their economies could be profound. 

Khamenei, 56, is the third person to lead the Islamic Republic and the first example of hereditary succession since the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy in the 1979 revolution. Regional officials say his selection is a direct rebuke to President Donald Trump, who had declared the son "unacceptable."

‌

Trump said the US will consider widening its strikes on the Islamic Republic, including potentially deploying special forces on the ground to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium, Bloomberg has reported.

‌

Iran-Led Rout: Asian Stocks Tumble on Inflation Concerns as Oil Prices Climb (Bloomberg)

‌

Asian stocks tumbled Monday, as the escalating Iran war drove oil near $120 a barrel and fueled fears of a fresh inflationary shock.

‌

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slumped as much as 5.6%, entering correction territory before paring losses on a report that the Group of Seven finance ministers are set to discuss a possible joint release of oil reserves.

‌

Aiding America's Enemies: Russia is Providing Iran Intelligence to Target U.S. Forces, Officials Say (Washington Post)

‌

The assistance, which has not been previously reported, signals that the rapidly expanding conflict now features one of America’s chief nuclear-armed competitors with exquisite intelligence capabilities.

‌

Since the war began, Russia has passed Iran the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft, said the three officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

‌

Economic  Warning Signs

‌

Jobs Alarm: Surprise Drop in US Payrolls Casts Doubt on Steadying Job Market (Bloomberg)

‌

US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in February and the unemployment rate rose, pointing to lingering fragility in a labor market that was thought to be stabilizing.

‌

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note: Unemployment rate for October is not available due to US government shutdown.

Consumer Pullback: US Retail Sales Fell in January on Fewer Vehicle Purchases (Bloomberg)

Seven out of 13 categories posted decreases. Motor vehicle sales dropped 0.9%, while receipts at apparel merchants, gas stations and health and personal care stores also declined.

What I'm Reading

Travelers Beware: Shutdown Hits Airport Security (New York Times)

‌

Spring break travelers in Houston and New Orleans faced security lines that stretched through terminals and even into parking garages on Sunday, causing passengers to miss flights. The delays come as TSA officers, required to show up for work despite the partial government shutdown, have now gone weeks without pay and are missing paychecks for the second time in six months.

‌

Because of staffing shortages, some security lanes and TSA PreCheck were closed, forcing passengers into hours-long waits. Wait times were normal at New York area airports on Sunday morning, with the longest wait around 30 minutes, according to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

New Climate Report: Earth Is Warming Faster Than Previously Estimated, New Study Shows (Bloomberg)

The Earth warmed around 0.35 degrees Celsius in the decade to 2025, compared to just under 0.2C per decade on average between 1970 and 2015, according to a paper published on Friday in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters. This is the first statistically significant evidence of an acceleration of global warming, the authors said.

‌

German Elections: German Chancellor Merz Fails Election Test After Greens Win German State Vote (Bloomberg)

‌

The loss in the wealthy southwestern region of Baden-Wuerttemberg — home of carmakers Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Porsche AG — is ominous for Friedrich Merz, whose authority will be tested in four more regional elections this year as his personal approval ratings founder. The party faces a particular challenge against the far-right Alternative for Germany as it continues to gain ground, above all in eastern Germany.

‌

Colombian Elections: Primary Landslide Makes Valencia a Favorite to Lead Colombia (Bloomberg)

‌

Senator Paloma Valencia is among the favorites to become Colombia’s next president after a landslide win in primaries yesterday.

A close ally of former leader Álvaro Uribe, she is calling for a beefed-up army and police force to launch a military offensive against cocaine-trafficking gangs, and also wants to eliminate the nation’s wealth tax.

‌

In Memoriam: At Jesse Jackson Service, the Humble and Powerful Come to Pay Homage (New York Times)

‌

The Jackson family welcomed three of the four living former U.S. presidents, who sat together in the front row: Barack Obama, Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Bill Clinton. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Jill Biden, the former first lady, also attended.

‌

Obama recalled watching Jackson on the debate stage during his run for president in 1984. It was Jackson, he said, who helped draw him to Chicago.

‌

“He paved the road for so many others to follow,” he said. “It was because of that path that he had laid, because of his courage, his audacity, that two decades later, a young Black senator from Chicago’s South Side would even be taken seriously as a candidate of the presidential nomination.”

‌

Obama’s speech was followed by a rendition of “A Change Is Gonna Come,” by Jennifer Hudson, who grew up in Chicago.

‌

Jesse Jackson addresses the 1988 Democratic National Convention in Atlanta. Source: Bettmann/Getty Images

‌

🔊 Dive Deeper: The Daily Read Podcast just dropped—and it’s packed with an AI-powered breakdown of today’s biggest headlines. We go beyond the scroll with the key takeaways, smart context, and the “why it matters” behind each story, so you can stay ahead in less time. Listen now on Spotify or  Apple Podcasts.

‌

Six Days Left to Watch Oscar Contenders: Here's Where You Can Watch this Year's Oscar-nominated Movies at Home (USA Today)

‌

Here are 20 nominated movies to watch from your couch right now.

‌

Conan O'Brien hosts the Oscars on Sunday, March 15, airing live on ABC and Hulu at 7 pm ET/4 pm PT.

‌

Oscars statues are displayed during preparations for the 97th Annual Academy Awards in Hollywood, California, on March 1, 2025. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP) (Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images) Photographer: PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP

Streetwise by Lloyd Blankfein

Book Excerpt: Lloyd Blankfein “Survived” Harvard as a Working-Class Kid From Brooklyn. Then, He Became CEO of Goldman Sachs. (Vanity Fair)

‌

Mike Bloomberg hosted launch event for Blankfein's book, "Streetwise," at the PAC in lower Manhattan last week.

‌

He said Lloyd's story is "an inspiring example of what's possible in America with a little bit of luck and alot of hard work and willingness to take risks."

‌

"Along the way Lloyd has helped others achieve their dreams as well and that includes financial aid at his alma mater Harvard and his leadership of the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses program that has helped so many entrepreneurs all around this country," Mike added. "Bloomberg has been a partner of the 10,000 Small Businesses program since the beginning and it's really making a difference."

‌

Lloyd shared a story from his early days about Mike, which he said really registered with him. When he was a very junior staffer at Goldman, he said:

‌

"One day, someone came across the desk and said "Lloyd, it's Bloomberg for ya." Lloyd said he then asked 'Who from Bloomberg?" The person responded: "It's not someone from Bloomberg. It's Bloomberg!"

‌

Mike was making customer calls, and Lloyd was on his call sheet that day.

‌

Lloyd recounted telling Mike: "I'm not sure this is the most efficient use of your time, because I'm a junior person."

‌

Looking back, Lloyd said: "That was probably the stupidest thing I ever said. Because it turns out to be one of the most efficient things you can do. Because Mike called me, talked to me for two minutes, and about 400 people on the trading floor had known he'd done it."

‌

"And here we are, something like 35 years later, and I'm still talking about it. What an efficient use of 2 minutes of your time and look at the mileage you've gotten for it. And that was a very important lesson," Lloyd said.

‌

Order the book from Penguin Random House here.

‌

Mike with Lloyd Blankfein, celebrating the publication of Lloyd's new book, 'Streetwise.' 

Best of SNL

‌

On soon-to-be-former Homeland Security chief Kristi Noem becoming the first Cabinet official fired by Trump in his second term:

‌

‌“Imagine being singled out as the worst member of Trump's cabinet. That's like someone coming up to you at a party and saying, 'We think you should leave; you're making Diddy uncomfortable.'”

— Colin Jost

‌

“President Trump said he will reassign Kristi Noem to be Special Envoy for the Shield of the Americas, which is a brand new department on a farm upstate.”

— Michael Che

‌

On recent images that show a rash above President Trump's collar:

‌

“Apparently, someone accidentally washed his shirt in holy water.”

— Michael Che

‌

On Warner Bros. World Abu Dhabi's announcement the park will develop the Middle East’s first Harry Potter themed land:

‌

“Hopefully, they know the spell for missilim deflectus.”

— Colin Jost

‌

And from the Show: Kristi Noem joins Pete Hegseth's presser to insist she wasn't fired as Homeland Security Secretary but, instead, "self-deported." Click the photo below to watch.

‌