Hello from Hong Kong, where this week Bloomberg hosted the Family Office Summit, bringing together family office principals, policymakers, and senior leaders from across the investment ecosystem to discuss long-term strategy, resilience, and the forces shaping capital allocation.
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The summit featured speakers including Paul Chan, Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary; Christopher Hui, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury; and Prince Max von und zu Liechtenstein, Chairman and CEO of LGT Group, and was opened by Bing Li, Bloomberg’s Asia-Pacific Chairman.

[Left] Bing Li and [Right] Christopher Hui

Technology and AI were major topics of conversation, with Bloomberg highlighting ASKB, our new conversational AI interface on the Bloomberg Terminal that draws on Bloomberg’s trusted data, news, research, and analytics for faster, more contextual answers.
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For Hong Kong-based family offices, that is especially meaningful at a moment when portfolios are more global, more multi-asset, and more exposed to volatility and structural change. And as Hong Kong works to strengthen its position as a leading family office hub and firms look for ways to bring more institutional-grade analysis into their decision-making.

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The event also took place during Hong Kong’s Wealth for Good Summit, which reinforced the city’s ambition to strengthen its position as a leading global family office hub.

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Beyond finance, Art Basel Hong Kong is kicking off on the Wan Chai waterfront, where the Whispers of Form exhibition by the Hong Chi Association, a Bloomberg Philanthropies partner, stands out as a reminder of the city’s creative and community spirit.

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It’s been great to connect with colleagues and to see the buzz in our Hong Kong office throughout this week’s events.

The Price of War

US Recession Risks Begin to Rise as War Dims Economic Outlook (Bloomberg)

Wall Street is cutting its forecasts for the US economy this year, boosting its projections for inflation and unemployment and nudging up the odds of a recession as the impact of the Iran war starts to come into view.
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Goldman Sachs says the risk of a downturn over the next 12 months has risen to 30% as a result of the surge in oil prices, and predicts the jobless rate will climb to 4.6% by the end of 2026 from 4.4% in February. Several firms say inflation will now be closer to 3% this year than 2%, eating into  disposable incomes and keeping a lid on hiring.

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Even if the fighting ends soon, economists say the damage already done will keep the US economy on a narrow footing, with job seekers and lower-income consumers alike continuing to struggle.

American consumers can already see the impact when buying gasoline or plane tickets. But a  growing fertilizer shortage created by the war is also set to push food prices up as the year goes on. Higher prices for diesel fuel — which have risen even faster than regular gas — will add to shipping costs, which could also eventually boost a whole range of prices for consumer goods that were already boosted by tariffs.

Shipping Costs Rise: US Postal Service to Impose First-Ever Fuel Surcharge on Packages (Wall Street Journal)
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The US Postal Service will impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel.

The 8% surcharge will begin in April, and the current plan is to phase it out in January 2027. It will apply to packages but not letter mail.

Other parcel carriers, including FedEx and United Parcel Service, have imposed fuel surcharges, as well as a basket of other surcharges and fees, for years. Both FedEx and UPS have dramatically raised their fuel surcharges in recent weeks as the price of oil has increased amid the turmoil in the Middle East.

Worldwide Strain: War Hits Global Economy With US Inflation Seen by OECD at 4.2% (Bloomberg)

Crop Crunch: Nations Race to Secure Enough Fertilizer and Prevent Food Crisis (Bloomberg)
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Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of spring planting, as the Middle East war chokes off the flow of commodities and amplifies fears of a global food crisis.
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Fertilizers exemplify the tight link between energy and food prices, underpinning harvests worldwide. The Middle East is a vital supplier, rich in both mineral reserves and the gas needed to produce nutrients for staples like corn, wheat and rice. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, shipments have ground to a halt as Iran, the US and Israel continue to exchange strikes on energy infrastructure.
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In turn, prices of urea — the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer — have surged, with phosphate supplies also at risk. Much of global stock is tied to the Persian Gulf, and panic is spreading across major agricultural economies.

Terminal tip: Use ASKB to query how the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting supply chains. Or use MAP VESSELS to track real-time vessel movements and export data.  

What I'm Reading

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Green Gains: UK’s Renewables Output Hits Record, Helping to Blunt Iran Shock (Bloomberg)

The UK’s renewables power output hit a record on Wednesday, with a surge in wind and solar generation helping to blunt the impact of the Middle East war on power prices.

Europe’s power prices have been much more resilient than natural gas to the impact of the conflict, especially in places with a high share of renewables.  UK power futures are up 30% so far this month, according to ICE, while the equivalent European gas benchmark is up about 64%.

Solar levels are expected to continue rising during the spring months as sunnier conditions set in. Wind output, which was muted last year, is now recovering, with data from BloombergNEF showing a 37% jump in output this March compared with last year.

Russia-Vietnam Talks: Putin Says He Will Visit Vietnam in 2026 at Talks With Premier (Bloomberg)

Security Strain Continues: US Airport Wait Times Worst in History After 480 Officers Leave (Bloomberg)

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Palm Beach Election Surprise: Democrats Flip State House Seat with Emily Gregory Set to Represent Donald Trump's District (Associated Press)
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Florida Democrats, beaten down by years of Republican domination in what was once the consummate battleground state, claimed new optimism Wednesday after a special election victory in President Donald Trump’s home district.
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Emily Gregory will represent the district that includes Mar-a-Lago, the president’s resort in Palm Beach, as a state representative.

Gregory’s victory is the latest flip of a Republican-held seat since Trump’s second presidency began, giving Democrats fresh confidence in a midterm election year with control of Congress and many statehouses — including Florida’s — up for grabs in November.

Silicon Valley Circle: Trump Taps Zuckerberg, Andreessen, Ellison and Huang for Tech Council (Bloomberg)

The council is part of Trump's push to establish "American dominance" in AI and digital assets, and he has secured commitments from tech leaders to build out AI infrastructure and unveiled a national blueprint for regulating AI.

Jury Findings: Meta, Google Risk Big Tobacco-Like Fallout After Addiction Trial (Bloomberg)

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🔊 New Episode Alert: Today's Daily Read Podcast just dropped, featuring an AI-powered breakdown of today’s biggest headlines. We go beyond the scroll with key takeaways, smart context, and the “why it matters” behind each story—so you can stay ahead in less time. Listen now on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Bracket Showdown: ChatGPT, Claude and Gemini Entered the WSJ Bracket Pool. One Might Actually Win. (Wall Street Journal)

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March Madness, the annual US college basketball tournament, is playing out this year at a time when AI tools are smarter than ever.
With the models from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google already being judged against each other in everything from coding to creative writing, the Wall Street Journal decided it was time for a new test of their intelligence: the bracket benchmark. 

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So the Journal secretly entered three ringers into The Wall Street Journal office pool—Claude, Gemini and ChatGPT.  And as we head into another weekend of the NCAA tournament, all three AI models can still win it. 

More than half of the pool’s brackets have already been eliminated, but Claude has one of the highest win probabilities of any entry. When it picked No. 3 seed Illinois to go all the way, it deviated from the pack and the other AI models.

Claude took 12 minutes to think about its bracket, which is more time than most humans devoted to this exercise, and crowned Illinois as its contrarian national champion. Gemini and ChatGPT played it safer by picking No. 1 seed Michigan, the Journal reports. 

Tune in to see how your bracket plays out, or how the storyline between AI bots develops, as the Sweet 16 tournament begins tonight, with the men’s matchups starting at 7:10 PM ET and the women’s games continuing tomorrow. 

Best of Late Night

On President Trump telling reporters that he’d received a “very significant prize” from Iran, declining to detail what he referred to as “a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money”:

“The Secret Service is going to be like, ‘Mr. President, please don’t bring that to the Situation Room.’ While Trump responds: 'But it’s expensive! And it’s ticking. I bet it’s a watch.’”
-- Josh Johnson

“What kind of present did they send him? Did they give him a Vitamix?”
-- Jimmy Kimmel

“Who would have ever guessed he could be easily manipulated by expensive gifts? Maybe they gave him a medal that says ‘World’s Greatest Enemy’ or something.”
-- Jimmy Kimmel
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And from The Daily Show: President Trump is throwing untrained ICE agents into America's airports, and even though they're doing nothing to help move TSA lines, Josh Johnson is just glad to have them off the streets. Click the photo below to watch.
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