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'Wild West' of Betting Markets: Soldier Charged With Using Classified Data to Bet on Maduro, Pocketing $400,000 (Bloomberg)
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, a special forces soldier stationed at Fort Bragg in Fayetteville, North Carolina, was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, a military effort to capture Maduro, the US said.
Prosecutors said that around Dec. 26, Van Dyke created and funded a Polymarket account, and began trading on contracts tied to whether Maduro would be out as Venezuela’s leader. He placed a total of about 13 bets from Dec. 27 through the evening of Jan. 2 all taking “YES” positions on various Maduro-related questions posed by the trading platform, which allows users to wager on the outcome of real world events.
The exploding popularity of prediction markets has raised widespread concern that the platforms are vulnerable to insider trading because there are so many new topics that are now open for trading.
War Consequences: Economists Raise US Inflation Forecasts as Iran War Drags On (Bloomberg)
Analysts warn energy prices will remain elevated even if there is a resolution to the hostilities soon because of the damage to energy production facilities and refining capacity incurred during the war.
“The legacy effects of the war in Iran are going take months — not weeks — to unwind, with echo effects well into the second half of the year,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.
US households are dealing with gasoline prices that have been hovering around $4 a gallon on average, and elevated diesel prices and supply disruptions have driven up input costs for US businesses.
The Worst is Yet to Come: The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World (New York Times)
Many countries across the Asia-Pacific are experiencing sudden jolts of disruption that they are struggling to manage, with some comparing the crisis’s breakdowns and scope to the Covid pandemic, the New York Times reports.
Even if there is a peace deal soon, the future of this industrious region that has driven global economic growth for decades will likely include months of canceled flights, surging food prices, factory pauses, delayed shipments and empty shelves for products long considered quick and easy to buy worldwide: plastic bags, instant noodles, vaccines, syringes, lipstick, microchips and sportswear.
Collectively, according to many officials and experts, if the war’s strangling of commercial traffic through the Middle East lasts for even a few more weeks, and uncertainty lingers, shortages could push several countries into convulsions of unrest, followed by recession.
Countless businesses are verging on insolvency. Governments are taking on enormous debt to slow inflation. By year’s end, in the most dire projections by the United Nations and others, millions across Asia could be pushed into poverty, according to the New York Times.
As the International Monetary Fund has noted, the world economy is slowing nearly everywhere because roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas, along with vital byproducts, have been held back from the global market since the war started, according to The Times.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz stabilizes tomorrow, it could take years for oil and gas output and shipping to reach prewar levels, the Times reports.
Solo Holder: Trump ‘Gold Card’ Visa Granted to Only One Person So Far, Lutnick Says (Bloomberg)
Only one person has been approved so far for Donald Trump’s “Gold Card” Visa program granting foreigners US residency for a $1 million fee, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday.
Lutnick didn’t reveal the identity of the applicant who had been approved. He said in testimony to a US House committee that applications for the visa from “hundreds” more foreigners are under review.
Applicants must go through “an extraordinary vet” and must pay a $15,000 processing fee, he said.
Diving Deeper: JPMorgan Readies Fresh Private Credit Push After Needling Market (Bloomberg)
Podcast Alert: Don't Miss the Daily Read Podcast! Take a listen to the AI-powered Daily Read podcast each day. It's our audio companion to this newsletter that offers deeper insights. Listen and follow on Spotify here
or Apple Podcasts here.
Another Podcast Recommendation: London Mayor Sadiq Khan Shares Lessons From One of the World’s Greenest Cities (Bloomberg)
Sadiq Khan is about to complete 10 years
as London’s mayor. He’s seen the city affected by Brexit, the pandemic and two energy crises. That hasn’t deterred him from deploying some of the strongest air-quality regulations in any city.
Khan talks to Akshat Rathi about lessons
from London’s successes and failures. As a prominent member of the UK’s Labour Party, Khan also shares his thoughts about the future of the party. Listen to the episode here.
Sunday in London: Thousands of Runners Lace Up for the London Marathon, One of the World’s Biggest Races (Runner's World)
The countdown to the 2026 London Marathon is officially on, with this world-famous race returning on Sunday for its 46th edition.
The iconic course, largely unchanged since 1981, begins in Greenwich before winding past Tower Bridge, Canary Wharf, Embankment and finishing on The Mall in front of Buckingham Palace.
Just as famous as the route is the electric atmosphere, with huge crowds bringing energy and excitement to every mile. Spectators looking for the biggest buzz should head to Tower Bridge or the finish line, while those after a quieter vantage point may prefer the Isle of Dogs, Mudchute or Deptford.
Big Sequel Ahead: Meryl Streep, Anna Wintour and Lady Gaga Toast ‘The Devil Wears Prada 2’ at NYC's Lincoln Center (New York Times)
At a starry premiere at Lincoln Center,
fashion industry figures reflected on just how much the original film got right. The Times has photos from the night, including stars Meryl Streep, Emily Blunt, Stanley Tucci and Anne Hathaway, as well as fashion icons Anna Wintour and Marc Jacobs. The film hits theaters on Friday, May 1.
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